Canada tourism is being reshaped by a sharp decline in cross-border movement with the United States, according to newly released border counts and industry forecasts. Statistics Canada reports that Canadian return trips from the U.S. fell 28.7% year over year in June 2025, while U.S. visits to Canada decreased 5.8%—a dual slowdown during the heart of peak travel season. A companion survey shows significant cancellation intent among Canadians for U.S. trips, hinting at a durable reallocation of spending within Canada tourism this year [1][3].

Key Takeaways

– shows Canadian return trips from the U.S. fell 28.7% year over year in June 2025, with total return journeys at 3,470,204, StatCan reports [1]. – reveals U.S. visits to Canada dropped 5.8% in June 2025, signaling softer inbound demand despite summer peak travel season pressures [1]. – demonstrates July 2025 border trends remained weak: Canadian car return trips fell 36.9% and air travel slid 25.8% year over year [5]. – indicates U.S. inbound tourism is weakening broadly, with 2025 foreign travel spending forecast to decline 7%—about $12.5 billion—per WTTC [2]. – suggests sentiment is curbing cross-border trips: 36% canceled planned U.S. travel and Canadian visits may drop 20.2% this year [3].

Canada tourism shifts amid U.S. travel decline

The most recent border data show a decisive pivot in travel behavior, with Canadians making far fewer round trips to the United States. In June 2025, Canadian residents recorded 3,470,204 return trips, but return journeys specifically from the U.S. were down 28.7% year over year, spotlighting the sharpest pullback in years for the start of the summer season [1]. StatCan emphasized a 32.3% decline in Canadian automobile return trips, underlining how ground travel has borne the brunt of the downturn [1].

Inbound travel flows also softened. U.S. resident visits to Canada declined 5.8% year over year in June 2025, a setback for gateway cities and attractions reliant on American demand [1]. While the dip is smaller than the Canadian outbound slump, it reinforces a broader North American travel deceleration at a time when seasonal travel normally crests. Taken together, the figures point to a recalibration in Canada tourism—less cross-border frictionless movement, and likely more emphasis on domestic and non-U.S. international sources [1].

What the StatCan border counts tell us

Monthly snapshots of border crossings reveal both intensity and persistence of the downturn. In May 2025, Canadian road trips into the U.S. plunged 38% year over year, and air travel to the U.S. fell 24%, according to aggregated reporting on official counts [3]. The weakness extended into early summer. By July 2025, Canadian car return trips to the U.S. were down 36.9% and air travel had slipped 25.8%, suggesting no immediate rebound in sight [5].

StatCan’s June release added crucial context: not only were Canadian return trips from the U.S. off 28.7% year over year, but the total volume of Canadian resident return trips was heavily skewed by a 32.3% decline in automobile flows—historically the largest channel for cross-border leisure visits [1]. U.S. visitations into Canada, down 5.8% in June, indicate North-South tourism flows weakened in both directions, complicating revenue forecasts for tourism suppliers on both sides of the border [1].

How U.S. travel softness ricochets back to Canada

The cross-border slowdown is not isolated; it sits within a broader weakening of the United States’ inbound performance. The World Travel and Tourism Council projects foreign travel spending in the U.S. will decline 7% in 2025, or roughly $12.5 billion—making the U.S. the only country among 184 tracked to see an absolute drop this year [2]. A key driver cited is weaker Canadian and other inbound demand, amplifying the economic stakes for destinations that rely on Canadian visitors [2].

Industry loss estimates illustrate the scale. Early 2025 analyses warned of a potential $4.3 billion U.S. revenue hit tied to a 20% drop in visitors, aligning with reported declines in bookings to U.S. destinations from Canadian markets [4]. A forecast by Tourism Economics further underscored risk on the Canada-to-U.S. corridor, projecting Canadian visits to the U.S. could fall 20.2% in 2025—a level consistent with the double-digit declines observed at the border [3]. Deteriorating inbound conditions in the U.S. and falling outbound trips by Canadians appear to be reinforcing each other across North America [2][3][4].

Why Canadians are avoiding the U.S. now

Survey evidence suggests the downturn is not merely about prices or exchange rates—it is partly attitudinal. In one widely cited poll, 36% of Canadians said they canceled planned trips to the United States, capturing a meaningful share of discretionary travelers who would otherwise frequent U.S. cities, beach destinations, and theme parks [3]. That cancellation intent aligns with observed declines in both road and air segments from May through July 2025 [3][5].

Reporting through early 2025 linked the slump to political tensions, tariff threats, and rhetoric that cooled cross-border sentiment, with airlines and travel agents registering booking declines into U.S. markets [4]. Behavioral economists have pointed to political backlash and broader economic pressures as twin headwinds for cross-border travel, which help explain why declines are being felt across provinces and transport modes [5]. The data pattern—steeper drops in road travel, sizable declines in air—supports a narrative of sentiment-driven pullbacks layered atop economic caution [3][5].

Implications for destinations and operators

For Canadian destinations, fewer outbound trips can mean travel dollars are more likely to remain domestic, especially during peak months when travelers rebook closer to home. While there is no single national figure quantifying such substitution in June or July, the sharp contraction in Canadian returns from the U.S.—28.7% in June and deeper declines in July’s mode-specific tallies—creates a window for Canadian parks, resorts, and cultural events to capture displaced demand [1][5]. Similarly, tourism marketers may benefit from re-targeting Canadians who abandoned U.S. itineraries [3].

On the inbound side, the 5.8% drop in U.S. visits to Canada in June is a reminder that Canada’s own international source mix can’t rely solely on American travelers to drive growth in 2025 [1]. Destinations may need to lean into long-haul markets that are still in recovery mode, emphasizing itineraries and products that convert higher-yield international visits. However, given the broader U.S. inbound slowdown and the interconnected nature of North American itineraries, spillover effects can complicate planning across airlines, tour operators, and border hubs [2].

Risk factors and the path forward

Official statisticians caution that monthly travel trends can be temporary, influenced by event timing, policy headlines, or weather, and may swing as conditions evolve [1]. Even so, the alignment of indicators—the StatCan border data, survey cancellation rates, and a weak U.S. inbound outlook—suggests the baseline for cross-border recovery has shifted lower for 2025 [1][2][3]. The year’s trajectory now depends on whether sentiment improves and whether policy signals reduce friction across the border [4].

Operators should track mode-specific demand closely. The 32.3% drop in Canadian automobile return trips in June highlights an especially fragile segment that historically underpins budget leisure and same-day travel [1]. If auto crossings remain depressed, border town retailers and attractions could face outsized impacts, while domestic road-trip corridors within Canada may see incremental gains from travelers pivoting inward [1]. Air markets also remain vulnerable: July’s 25.8% year-over-year decline in air travel across the border echoes airline booking softness reported earlier in the year [4][5].

Canada tourism outlook for late 2025

Looking ahead to autumn and the holiday period, Canada tourism faces a mixed picture: potential domestic substitution benefits versus softer inbound from the U.S. and a cooler North American macro backdrop. The WTTC’s 7% decline forecast for U.S. foreign travel spending underscores that Canada cannot count on a rapid rebound in American arrivals to lift late-year performance [2]. Instead, tourism boards may emphasize regional travel, shoulder-season festivals, and value-led offers to convert Canadians who nixed U.S. trips into local stays [2][3].

Forecast risks remain two-sided. A moderation in political tensions could unlock pent-up demand, while a worsening macro environment or renewed policy friction could extend the slump into 2026 [4]. For now, the quantitative signals are clear: Canadian return trips from the U.S. were down 28.7% in June, U.S. visits to Canada fell 5.8%, and July readings showed road and air segments still sliding, limiting cross-border lift for Canada tourism during a critical revenue window [1][5]. Monitoring monthly releases and traveler sentiment surveys will be essential for calibrating pricing, capacity, and marketing through year-end [1][3][5].

Sources:

[1] Statistics Canada – The Daily — Travel between Canada and other countries, June 2025: https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/n1/daily-quotidien/250822/dq250822b-eng.htm

[2] Reuters – Foreign travel spending in US to decline 7% in 2025, report says: www.reuters.com/business/foreign-travel-spending-us-decline-7-2025-report-says-2025-05-13/” target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow noopener noreferrer”>https://www.reuters.com/business/foreign-travel-spending-us-decline-7-2025-report-says-2025-05-13/ [3] Forbes – Trump Politics Keeping 60% of Canadians From Visiting U.S., Survey Reports: www.forbes.com/sites/suzannerowankelleher/2025/04/29/us-travel-boycott-60-of-canadians-staying-away-because-of-trump-survey-says/” target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow noopener noreferrer”>https://www.forbes.com/sites/suzannerowankelleher/2025/04/29/us-travel-boycott-60-of-canadians-staying-away-because-of-trump-survey-says/

[4] The Washington Post – Canadian travel to U.S. is plummeting: ‘There’s a lot of anger’: https://www.washingtonpost.com/travel/2025/04/03/canada-travel-decline-united-states/ [5] The Guardian – Canadians steer clear of US as travel from north falls for seventh month: www.theguardian.com/world/2025/aug/12/us-canada-travel-trump” target=”_blank” rel=”nofollow noopener noreferrer”>https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/aug/12/us-canada-travel-trump

Image generated by DALL-E 3